September 17, 2001
To Our Academic Friends and Colleagues,
We're taking the unusual step of writing to our scientific and academic colleagues on this topic for a
simple reason: you have expertise, insight, education, and training, that is needed right now. It is needed
in our universities and our schools, at forums and discussions. It is needed when we speak with our
families and when we make our wishes known to our political representatives. It is needed in the U.S.
and around the world.
In dealing with issues in our own fields we are often forced to recognize the complexities within them,
their convergent causality, and the presence of patterns that propagate system structures and behaviors.
The understanding of feedback loops and other patterns helps us to make sense of the complex
systems we study.
In the World Trade Center tragedy we see some of these same patterns operating in our own human
systems. Cycles of violence and other self-propagating dynamics are clearly at work here, and it may
be that in choosing not to explain such core concepts of pattern and feedback, we do a disservice to
the understanding of our nation and the world. In our government's willingness to consider what may
devolve into undifferentiated war against entire peoples, we may be initiating violent cycles of even
greater magnitude, and sacrificing the long-term security intrinsic in the good will of our fellows for
short- term political solutions. Any such decision should be backed by every measure of knowledge
and understanding that we have.
Yet the mass media do not present a clear picture of either these dynamics or the repercussions of
choices we make by engaging in the political machinations, the funding, or the process of war. Even
worse, it is not clear to the populace at large that deeper issues exist, and that in our rush to possible
violent retaliation, it is difficult to maintain an objective view of our long-term security and well-being,
and that of the world.
It is here that we ask your help. Having perhaps greater access to useful conceptual frameworks, to
data, to the history and contexts of events now unfolding, many academics are in a position to speak
out in a reasonable and explanatory manner about the choices before us and the consequences of any
actions we might take. Beyond that, academic voices are often heard in debates where others may be
drowned out. The generous intellectual resources and free time which our society affords members of
the scientific and broader scholarly community give us a special responsibility in these times of crisis to
seek to inject the reason, the facts, and the deeper understanding necessary for good decision making.
Speaking out in such times can seem challenging or even dangerous. Being factual, thoughtful, or
reasonable is especially difficult when blood runs hot and the drumbeat of war sounds. Yet the
alternative is to allow national decisions of global import to be made without our voices, possibly biased
by political expediency and short-term agendas that in the end, serve few, if any.
When approaching issues without sufficient context, many who have little basis for their opinions shape
them directly from the degree to which they witness a viewpoint repeated, rather than a balanced
assessment of the issues. This means that public opinion is often formed by the *perception* of what
public opinion currently is; many will follow any course of action if it is the only clear choice. Allowing
only the the loudest and most repetitive voices to predominate in national discussions does no service to
democracy nor to our ability to choose a path wisely.
That is why it is crucial that many different possible responses to this tragedy be presented, and why the
cascade of consequences of any given action be pointed out by those trained to see them in the light of
other complex systems. Many concepts basic to science and other areas of academic study are not
self-evident to everyone, yet these insights and conceptual frameworks, so valuable for our work, could
be meaningfully applied to our current situation.
Given the possible long-term costs of decisions hastily made in the these circumstances, we urge you to
voice your concerns and share your insights with your community and elected representatives. We do
not ask that you espouse certain opinions or decisions, only that you do your utmost to influence the
ongoing American discussion through reason and discernment. We support you in your attempts to
speak out and find the best path not only for our nation, but for the world we live in - because the
decisions and actions we make now will surely impact our nation, our colleagues around the world, and
our loved ones in the future.
Please feel free to forward this letter as you see fit. If you have ideas for forums, discussions, solutions
to specific issues, or alternate paths to true global security, or if you would like to help establish dialogs
on these subjects either online or in your community, please contact Valerie Gremillion at
valerie@global-dialog.org. Your input is welcome -- and needed.
signed,
Valerie Gremillion, Ph.D University of New Mexico
J.Doyne Farmer, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Sam Bowles, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Thomas Kepler, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Elisabeth J. Wood, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Manoj Gambhir, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Jennifer Dunne, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute & San Francisco State University
Spyros Skouras, Ph.D Santa Fe Institute
Fred Cooper Ph.D. Los Alamos National Laboratory
Norman H. Packard, Ph.D Prediction Company